
Where will the OCR land?
Mortgage borrowers are so confident interest rates will come down even further this year, nearly half the mortgage money borrowed in November was on floating rates.
28 January 2025
Residential lending totalled $7.6 billion, up 1.2 per cent from $7.5 billion in October and up 21.8 per cent from $6.2 billion in November 2023. RBNZ data shows that 47.4 per cent of the total lending was taken out on floating interest rates. In other words, lending on fixed interest rates dropped to 52.6 per cent – the lowest since the survey began in April 2021. Borrowers started taking out new mortgages and re-fixing existing mortgages on floating and short-term fixed interest rates when the RBNZ started cutting the OCR in August of last year. The OCR now sits at 4.25 per cent and when the RBNZ next reviews it on February 19, economists expect a further cut of 0.50-0.75 per cent, particularly as business confidence has reached its first positive outlook in three years and is at the highest reading since 2017. It has lifted 50 points since August. New residential investor mortgage lending increased to $2.1 billion in November. Floating terms accounted for 50.8 per cent of new lending, up from 29.3 per cent in October – a historical peak. The share of new residential investor lending dropped for all terms except for floating rates. New residential investor lending on one-year fixed terms declined by 13.2 per cent to a 31.4 per cent share. In November, 99 per cent of investor new lending was on floating or at fixed rates up to two years. ν